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Modelling the transmission dynamics of tuberculosis in China based on an age-structure to achieve the goals of WHO

来源: bv1946伟德 发布时间: 2022-09-21 点击量:
  • 主持人: 聂华
  • 讲座人: 薛玲教授
  • 讲座日期: 2022-9-24
  • 讲座时间: 10:00
  • 地点: 腾讯会议(ID:223-352-859)

报告人简介:

薛玲,哈尔滨工程大学数学科学学院教授、博士生导师、生物数学团队学科带头人、黑龙江省工业与应用数学会常务理事、黑龙江省工程与应用重点实验室副主任、Applied Science and Technology期刊的编委。2013年在美国堪萨斯州立大学获得博士学位,2014年至2016年,在美国杜兰大学数学系与数学计算科学中心,从事博士后研究工作,合作导师是James. Mac Hyman教授;2016年至2017年,受到加拿大太平洋数学研究院和加拿大曼尼托巴大学数学系的联合资助,在加拿大曼尼托巴大学数学系与Julien Arino以及Felicia Magpantay共同合作研究。在Journal of Differential Equation、SIAM J Appl Math、PloS Neglected Tropical Diseases、Bulletin of Mathematical Biology、Journal of Theoretical Biology、Mathematical Biosciences等SCI期刊发表论文30余篇。目前在研主持国家自然科学基金面上项目。

报告简介:

Although great progress has been made in the prevention and mitigation of TB in the past 20 years, China is still the third largest contributor to the global burden of new TB cases, accounting for 833,000 new cases in 2019.Improved mitigation strategies, such asvaccines, diagnostics, and treatment, are needed to meet goals of WHO. Given the huge variability in the prevalence of TB across age groups in China, the vaccination, diagnostic techniques and treatment for different age groups may have different effects. Moreover, the data of TB cases show significant seasonal fluctuations in China.In this talk, I presenta non-autonomous differential equation model with age structure and seasonal transmission rate. Our resultsshowthat vaccinating susceptible individuals whose ages are over 65 and between 20 and 24 is much more effective in reducing prevalence of TB.Although the improved strategies will significantly reduce the incidence rate of TB, it is challenging to achieve the goal of WHOby2050.

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